Croatia: 2007 Election Preview
November Parliamentary Election Unlikely to Change Country’s Course
Croatia's November parliamentary election may provide a change in political power, but the country's path toward NATO and European Union membership should not change.
President Stjepan Mesic has formally announced the Republic of Croatia’s next parliamentary election will take place on Sunday, November 25, 2007. Mesic’s announcement came five days after the Sabor (parliament) was dissolved in preparation for the election. Registered voters abroad will be able to vote on November 24 and 25 at Croatia’s embassies and consular offices.
This will be the sixth parliamentary election since Croatia declared its independence from Yugoslavia in 1991. Deputies are directly elected to four-year terms in the 152-seat Sabor using proportional representation, in which a party or coalition must receive at least 5% of votes to gain representation in parliament. All Croatian citizens that have attained 18 years of age may vote in the election, except for those convicted of a felony.
Parliament Makeup Prior to Recent Dissolution
Current power in Croatia is held by Prime Minister Ivo Sanader’s conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). The HDZ has won all but one of the previous general elections. Their only loss occurred in 2000, when the Social Democratic Party led a broad center-left coalition to victory.
The following list comprises the political parties that last won seats in the Sabor (with electoral percentage and number of seats - parties with no percentage gained seats due to an alliance):
- Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ): conservative - 33.9% (66)
- Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP): social-democratic - 22.6% (34)
- Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS): liberal-regionalist - (4)
- Party of Liberal Democrats (merged into HNS): liberal - (3)
- Liberal Party (LS, merged into HSLS): liberal - (2)
- Croatian People's Party (HNS): liberal democratic - 8.0% (10)
- Primorje-Gorski Kotar Alliance (PGS): regionalist - (1)
- Croatian Peasant Party (HSS): conservative agrarian - 7.2% (9)
- Croatian Party of Rights (HSP): nationalist - 6.4% (8)
- Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS): conservative liberal - 4.1% (2)
- Democratic Centre (DC): conservative - (1)
- Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU) - 4.0% (3)
- Croatian Democratic Peasant Party (HDSS): agrarian - 1.0% (1)
Election Poll Results
A poll conducted during the first half of October finds the Social Democratic Party of Croatia leading the incumbent Croatian Democratic Union by 5 seats. The poll results are (with poll percentage and projected number of seats):
- Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP) - 30.3% (58 seats)
- Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) - 30.3% (53 seats)
- Croatian Peasant Party-Croatian Social Liberal Party-Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar (HSS-HSLS+) - 5.5% (7 seats)
- Croatian People's Party (HNS) – Liberal Democrats - 5.3% (7 seats)
- Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU) – 5.3% (6 seats)
- Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) - 4.6% (5 seats)
- Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS) - 1.9% (3 seats)
- Croatian Democratic Assembly of Slavonija and Baranja 0 .9%
- Others - 1.5%
- Not sure - 11.0%
The poll also indicated that currently undecided voters favor the Social Democratic Party (13.2%) compared to the Croatian Democratic Union (11.0%). If the November election results reflect the current poll, both the Social Democratic Party and the Croatian Democratic Union will require support from other parties to form a viable government.
The election campaign will officially begin on November 3, and will last three weeks. Both of the leading parties are committed to securing Croatia’s membership in NATO next year and joining the European Union in 2010.
References
Biocina, Marko. “SDP 42: HDZ 28 - Sanader Most Desirable Prime Minister.” Nacional Neovisni News Magazine. September 6, 2007.
Croatian Paliament Web Site.
“Croatian President Sets Election Date.” Balkan Investigative Reporting Network. October 17, 2007.
“Croatia’s politics.” The Economist. September 25, 2007.
Parties and Elections in Europe - Croatia. 2007.
“SDP ima vladu?” izbori ’07. Hrvatska Radiotelevizija. October 24, 2007.
